Result
What happened?
Democrats won both chambers. They flipped seven Republican-held Senate seats: Iowa, Kansas, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, South Carolina and Texas. Alaska and Mississippi are still being counted. In the House they gained at least 18 seats, with dozens of races still open.
Final forecasts, 28 October
What the forecasts said
Latest
What happened in the Senate?
Every toss-up broke Democratic
All four toss-ups went to Democrats: Iowa, Ohio, Maine and Texas. So did Kansas and South Carolina, both rated Lean Republican going in. The models had projected about 51 Democratic seats; the result is at least 54.
What does it mean?
The House landed inside the forecast range
Cook's likeliest outcome was a Democratic gain of 12 to 22 seats. Democrats have at least 18 so far, with races in Arizona, California, Colorado, Michigan, New York and elsewhere still counting.
Now what
Plan for a Democratic Congress
The new Congress sits on 3 January 2027, and every committee gavel changes hands. Organizations with business in Washington should map the incoming chairs and ranking members now, and reset priorities for the oversight and appropriations calendar. Alaska counts by ranked choice and may take weeks.
Live updates
What has changed?
—
Coming up
This page checks for new updates every five minutes. On election night, race calls appear here and on the Senate map as they are made by the Associated Press or Decision Desk HQ.
Senate · 35 seats on the ballot
Where is the Senate being decided?
22 seats held by Republicans and 13 by Democrats are up, including specials in Florida and Ohio. Democrats need a net gain of four. Ratings: Decision Desk HQ, 28 October. Click a state; small Northeast states are listed below the map.
Select a state on the map or a row below for candidates, polls and what to watch.
Polls vs model
Margin in the polling average and in the forecast
Poliwave polling average and model forecast, Democratic (or independent) margin over the Republican. Where the two differ, the model is leaning on fundamentals such as state partisanship.
Build your own Senate
Click a race to cycle it Democratic → Republican → Independent → open
Starts from 34 Democratic and 31 Republican seats not on the ballot (the two independents who caucus with Democrats are counted as Democratic). An independent win in Nebraska is shown separately: Dan Osborn's caucus choice would decide its weight.
All 35 races
House · 435 seats, 218 for a majority
How firm is the House call?
Cook Political Report ratings, 23 October
After moving 19 seats toward Democrats and none toward Republicans, Cook rates Democrats favoured in 218 seats, Republicans in 198, and 17 as toss-ups. Its likeliest range is a Democratic gain of 12 to 22 seats, for 227 to 237 seats.
Probability of Democratic control
Decision Desk HQ projects 238 Democratic seats. Markets are not forecasts: they price what traders expect and can move on thin volume.
Mid-decade redistricting
New maps in ten states
About 145 million people, two in five residents, live in states voting on new congressional districts this year.
Each party's own estimate of the most seats its new maps could add, as reported by the Associated Press. Both sides contest the other's numbers, and the national environment can erase a map's built-in edge.
What to watch
Signals that the House call is holding or slipping
- Early East Coast districts. Toss-ups in Virginia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania report first. Holding them points to the forecast range.
- Seats Cook moved late. Iowa's 1st and 3rd, Pennsylvania's 7th and 10th and Washington's 3rd were moved from toss-up to Lean Democratic in October.
- New Texas and California districts. They test whether a redrawn map holds in this environment.
- California's count. It runs for days. A close national result may not be clear on the night.
Governors · 36 races
Which statehouses could change hands?
18 seats held by each party; 15 incumbents are term-limited. Cook's final ratings point to Democrats gaining as many as four governorships.
What could happen?
Four ways 3 January could look
Probabilities are as published by the named source on 27–28 October. Sources model these outcomes differently, so the figures are not meant to add to 100%.
What does it mean?
Issues, messages, turnout and money
Top concerns of likely voters
Share choosing each as one of up to three top issues. BGSU national poll, 1,200 likely voters, September.
The president as a factor
Approval by aggregator, 22 October (* single polls: Reuters/Ipsos 20 October, Pew 28 September–4 October); aggregator average 36.2% approve, 61.3% disapprove. In AP-NORC polling, 74% disapprove of his handling of the economy and 79% of the cost of living.
Republican case
Tax relief, the border and safety
- The 2025 tax law, branded the "Working Families Tax Cut": no tax on tips or overtime, relief for seniors, permanent 2017 rates.
- Lower border crossings and security funding, framed as a contrast with Democrats on immigration.
- Senate Majority Leader Thune's summary: safer streets, more money in people's pockets, and opportunity.
- Late presidential rallies for Senate candidates in Ohio, Nebraska, Kansas, Alaska and Texas.
Democratic case
Affordability first
- Cost of living, from groceries and housing to health care and prescription drugs.
- Tariffs and fuel prices, tied to the administration's economic record.
- Corruption and government accountability, which voters now rank alongside inflation.
- Nominees in red states running on local issues, including opposition to new data centres in Ohio and Texas.
Turnout
Early voting is running ahead of 2018 and 2022 at the same point. Georgia passed one million votes a week after opening; Texas set a midterm record in its first seven days.
Enthusiasm
Registered voters calling voting "extremely important", AP-NORC, October.
Money
Watch
Hear it from the candidates
Full debates in the Senate races that decide control, posted by the broadcasters and newsrooms that aired them, plus election-night coverage. Videos load only when you press play.
No full general-election debate video from Ohio, Texas or North Carolina is listed yet. Videos are third-party uploads; Artefact91 does not endorse any candidate.
Tuesday 3 November · Eastern Time
When will we know?
Typical statewide poll closing times for the races that decide control. Some states span two time zones; confirm with state election offices.
Now what
Do not plan around a result on the night
A Senate decided by Maine or Alaska may not be known for days. Maine moves to ranked-choice tabulation if no one passes 50%. Alaska tabulates ranked choices after absentee ballots arrive, which can take weeks. Prepare holding lines for an undecided Senate as well as for each outcome.
Method
How this was built
Every figure is a third-party forecast, poll, rating or market price as published on the date shown. Polls are listed as reported, with field dates; partisan-sponsored polls are marked. Prediction markets show traders' prices, not forecasts. Artefact91 does not endorse candidates or parties.